Cost estimation of the use of low-carbon fuels in prospective scenarios for air transport
Résumé
Using low-carbon energies is a major lever to reduce the CO2 emissions of aviation. Some low-carbon energy carriers consist in fuels that are drop-in and require few modifications to current aircraft, like biofuels and electrofuels. Hydrogen is another low-carbon fuel that would be relevant in the long term only since it requires significant aircraft modifications (non-drop-in fuel). In both cases, several production pathways exist with radically different impacts in terms of cost of production and life-cycle CO2 emissions. Literature is already exhaustive on prospective decarbonization scenarios for aviation and low-carbon fuel production cost estimates. In this paper, an open-source simulation framework named CAST is enhanced by a module that links low-carbon fuels production cost to their respective consumption in given scenarios. Hence, the cost of a custom decarbonization scenario is evaluated. Results show that the cost of the integration of low-carbon fuels in this scenario would represent around 40 % of airlines revenues in 2050, while the energy demand growth would necessitate important capital investments, regularly increasing to 130 Bn e in 2050. A sensitivity analysis shows that these cost estimates are subject to large uncertainties.
Domaines
Sciences de l'environnementOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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